Market crash predictions
But what if you could see the crashes coming in advance? What if you could step aside before it's too late?
Mark Spitznagel, president and CIO of Universa Investments - a fund with about $6 billion in assets - thinks it's possible. In his recent book, The Dao of Capital: Austrian Investing in a Distorted World, Spitznagel argues that crashes are entirely foreseeable events and that if investors understand the market forces at work, they can cash out before the crash and save themselves a lot of pain.
The one indicator to watchSpitznagel is a big fan of "Tobin's q, " a ratio that compares the market value of companies to their replacement cost. A low q suggests that it's cheaper to buy a company than it is to buy the company's assets; a high q indicates the exact opposite.
Historically, high q values have corresponded to market tops. Indeed, Tobin's q peaked in 1999, just before the bursting of the tech bubble. The opposite is also true: The early 1980s saw some of the lowest q values on record, and if investors had bought into the market back then, they would have enjoyed great returns through the 1980s and 1990s.
Data from 1901-1952: Equities and Tobin's Q, The Manual of Ideas; Data from 1952-June 2013 Federal Reserve Statistical Release Z.1.
Spitznagel is a big believer in Austrian economics, a controversial school of thought that stands opposed to most conventional economic theory. (Ironically, James Tobin, the economist behind the q ratio, was a champion of Keynesian economics.) But Spitznagel told me recently that Tobin failed to understand the importance of his ratio. A high q ratio suggests stocks have become detached from the underlying economy.
"You'd think if there were a true elation about where the economy is going - which the move in stocks seems to suggest - then there'd also be this general investment in the rest of the economy, " Spitznagel said. "But there's no such thing. To the contrary. Corporations are sitting on more cash than ever; they're not investing it."
Hoarding cashThat's certainly the case. Despite record-low interest rates, companies - including Apple (NASDAQ: AAPL ) - have hoarded cash, leaving billions of dollars on their balance sheets instead of reinvesting it in their businesses. Some corporations have put their cash to work with dividends and share repurchase programs - what activist investor Carl Icahn is pressuring Apple to do - but as Spitznagel told me, this isn't leading to sustainable economic growth.
Doing what Icahn wants (borrowing against Apple's balance sheet to buy back stock) would likely drive Apple shares higher in the near term, but it wouldn't create growth. Paying shareholders may be great for Icahn, but Apple would serve the broader economy better by using that money to build factories or otherwise invest in its own business.
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