Gamblers have been predicting

Prediction markets explained

Prediction markets truly harness the “Wisdom of Crowds, ” but not that many people really know what they are. They understand the two words individually, but they don’t necessarily “get it.”

I decided to set myself a little bit of a challenge; to create a short video that explained the key concepts of prediction markets in three minutes or less. It took a while to really distill the ideas down to the core, and some of you may criticise that I’ve glossed over some details. But I hope the video below is something that busy executives can take the time to watch and understand. (I’ve created a separate page for it that you will also see on the right-hand sidebar.)

I look forward to reading your comments! (And if you like it, please Digg it!)

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Popular Q&A

Why is the structure of a market important if we wish to explain and predict the choices made by firms?

Because rational actors respond to incentives, and market structure can shape incentives and disincentives (for example, anticipated barriers to entry), especially given that no market is ever perfectly competitive. Market structure will also affect the amount and quality of information available to actors, which will also affect choice behavior.

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