Does drive market movement

Prediction markets government

Today, Americans were told that they must close their accounts. That happened because the federal government agency known as the "Commodity Futures Trading Commission" (CFTC) today sued the prediction market, where people from all over the world bet about things like who will win elections.

That's terrible news for all of us who want more input into what's going to happen in the future. Bettors on have made incredibly accurate predictions about elections - because they, unlike TV pundits, have real money on the line. This year, I watched on election night as TV pundits said "too close to call... too close to call..." while the bettors on Intrade knew that it was not a close call.

Intrade has also successfully predicted events like Saddam Hussein's capture and the winner of the Oscars. People with the best information trade about those events, and drive up the odds on Intrade.

Why did the American government sue Intrade? It was not for operating an online gambling operation, but for allegedly violating America's incomprehensible financial regulations - specifically, these ones:

"Section 4c(b) and 9(a)(3) of the [Commodity Exchange] Act, §§6c(b) and 13(a)(3) (2006); Section 2(e) of the Act, as amended by the Dodd-Frank Act, to be codified at 7 U.S.C. § 2(e); and Regulation 32, as amended, to be codified at 17 C.F.R. § 32 (2011);"

In English: the government says that many of the things Intrade allows people to predict - everything from what the price of gold will be in the future to whether the U.S. will go to war soon - are legally considered "commodity options, " and that Intrade broke the law because it isn't licensed to trade those. The penalty is $140, 000 per violation.

"It is against the law to solicit U.S. persons to buy and sell commodity options, even if they are called ‘prediction' contracts, unless they are... traded on a CFTC-registered exchange... Today's action should make it clear that we will intervene in the ‘prediction' markets, wherever they may be based."

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Popular Q&A

How to use the Supply/Demand to predict the market for cigarettes?

1- ) Using demand and supply curves, discuss the effect of each of the following on the market for cigarettes:
a) A cure for lung cancer is found.
b) The price of cigars increases.
c) Wages increase substantially in states that grow tobacco.
d) A fertilizer that increases the yield per acre of tobacco is discovered
2) How do you think each of the following affected the world price of ooil?
a) a major war began in the oil rich middle east
b)the alaskan oil pipeline was compeleted
c)the ceiling on the price of oil was removed
d) oil was discovered in the north sea

1.) a) If a cure is found for lung cancer, more people will want to buy cigarettes since the cure takes out a negative aspect. If more people want to buy them, demand increases.
b) Cigars and cigarettes are substitutes, so an increase in the price of cigars will increase the demand for cigarettes.
c) Consumers will have more money to spend, so demand will increase.
d) Thats's a technological improvement, so supply will increase.
2) a) The supply will decrease since there is less availability of oil. Price increases.
b) That will increase the supply, so price decreases.
c)If the ce…

What does a market demand curve predict?

There is no current information available at this time on what if anything the market demand curve may predict. !

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