Social prediction market
Liangfei QiuUniversity of Texas at Austin - Department of Economics
Huaxia RuiUniversity of Rochester - Simon Business School
Andrew B. WhinstonUniversity of Texas at Austin - Department of Information, Risk and Operations Management
Information aggregation mechanisms are designed explicitly for collecting and aggregating dispersed information. An excellent example of the use of this "wisdom of crowds" is a prediction market. The purpose of our Twitter-based prediction market is to suggest that carefully designed market mechanisms can elicit and gather dispersed information that can improve our predictions. We develop an information system that combines the power of prediction markets with the popularity of Twitter. Simulation results show that our network-embedded prediction market can produce better predictions as a result of the information exchange in social networks and can outperform other non-networked prediction markets. We also demonstrate that forecasting errors decrease with the cost of acquiring information in a network-embedded prediction market.
Number of Pages in PDF File: 16
Keywords: prediction market, social networks, information acquisition
JEL Classification: D83, D85, C72working papers series
Feedback to SSRN
Self-Regulatory Organizations; ICE Clear Europe Limited; Order Granting .. — Insurance News Net
ICE Clear Europe states that the changes to the Risk Policy amend the calculation of CDS initial margin requirements to comply with margin requirements under EMIR Article 41 and Article 24 of the implementing Regulatory Technical Standards. /5/ ICE ..
Socionomics: The Science of History and Social Prediction
Book (New Classics Library)
What research about predicting the stock market, products success or anything else, using data from social media, exists? - Quora
Stock Market: Can Twitter sentiment analysis guide stock market investment?